Will Donald Trump meet in person Kim Jong Un before Jan 1, 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 25% probability that Will Donald Trump meet in person Kim Jong Un before Jan 1, 2027?. This contract trades at 25¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The 25¢ price reflects skepticism about a Trump-Kim meeting within 258 days, though the asymmetric implied yields (425% Yes vs 47% No) suggest meaningful tail risk that traders are pricing in.
Analysis
The 25¢ price reflects skepticism about a Trump-Kim meeting within 258 days, though the asymmetric implied yields (425% Yes vs 47% No) suggest meaningful tail risk that traders are pricing in. Volume is thin at $196.56 in 24 hours against $3,952 open interest, indicating low liquidity that could amplify price swings if new information emerges about diplomatic developments. The modest 2¢ price rise over seven days and neutral regime score suggest the market is currently stable, though the 3-point cliff risk index warrants caution given the binary nature of diplomatic breakthroughs.
Resolution rules
If Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un meet in person after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTRUMPMEETING-27JAN01-NKJU yes 100