Will Donald Trump meet in person Sam Altman before Jan 1, 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 70% probability that Will Donald Trump meet in person Sam Altman before Jan 1, 2027?. This contract trades at 70¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market has experienced notable downward pressure, declining 5¢ over seven days from 75¢ to 70¢, suggesting deteriorating conviction in a Trump-Altman meeting despite the still-elevated 70% probability.
Analysis
The market has experienced notable downward pressure, declining 5¢ over seven days from 75¢ to 70¢, suggesting deteriorating conviction in a Trump-Altman meeting despite the still-elevated 70% probability. With zero 24-hour volume and only $674.26 in open interest, liquidity is extremely thin, making the 5¢ spread potentially misleading as a true market price. The asymmetric implied yields (60.3% for Yes versus 328.1% for No) indicate significant mispricing or risk premium, though the low Cliff Risk Index of 2 suggests the market isn't pricing in sudden resolution catalysts before the 260-day expiry.
Resolution rules
If Donald Trump and Sam Altman meet in person after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTRUMPMEETING-27JAN01-NSALT yes 100