What is the current probability for "Will Donald Trump meet in person Vladimir Putin before Jan 1, 2027?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 49¢ (49% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Donald Trump meet in person Vladimir Putin before Jan 1, 2027?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 155.5% and 132.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Will Donald Trump meet in person Vladimir Putin before Jan 1, 2027?

Prediction markets currently give a 49% probability that Will Donald Trump meet in person Vladimir Putin before Jan 1, 2027?. This contract trades at 49¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market is pricing a 61% probability of an in-person Trump-Putin meeting by year-end 2026, but the extremely asymmetric implied yields (93.7% for Yes vs.

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49¢

Bid/Ask 48/49¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $20.09·OI $2,453.66·Closes Jan 1, 2027·254d remaining

KXTRUMPMEETING-27JAN01-NVPUT

7-day price88 snapshots · 10 regime

65¢48¢ current

Apr 943¢Apr 22

Analysis

5d ago

The market is pricing a 61% probability of an in-person Trump-Putin meeting by year-end 2026, but the extremely asymmetric implied yields (93.7% for Yes vs. 210.9% for No) suggest significant mispricing or tail risk concerns, with the No side offering substantially better risk-adjusted returns at 211%. With only $38 in 24-hour volume against $1,898 open interest and a tight 1¢ spread, liquidity is notably thin for a high-probability geopolitical event, making this market vulnerable to sharp moves on news flow given the 0.3 info arrivals per hour and 109% realized volatility. The recent 4¢ decline over seven days combined with the 260-day timeframe to expiry suggests traders may be gradually repricing downward as diplomatic tensions persist.

Resolution rules

If Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin meet in person after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 155.5%

IY (No) 132.5%

Adj IY 156%

CRI 1

RV 121%

VR 0.91

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	155.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	132.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	156%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	121%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	0.91	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.4/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	7.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 9:21:58 AM

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 9:08:23 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXTRUMPMEETING-27JAN01-NVPUT yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →