Will Trump say "Trump Dollar / Trump Bill" before Jul 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 80% probability that Will Trump say "Trump Dollar / Trump Bill" before Jul 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 80¢ on Kalshi, closing July 1, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $14.91 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 78¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 90¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $14.91 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 78¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 90¢ spread. The implied yield of 4347% on the Yes side is extraordinarily high, suggesting either severe mispricing or that traders view the probability as substantially lower than the displayed price—a classic sign of thin, inefficient markets. The sharp 7-day price collapse from 24¢ to 10¢ indicates recent skepticism about Trump making this specific statement in the ~76 days remaining, though the high cliff risk index (9) warns that resolution could hinge on narrow interpretation of the criteria.
Resolution rules
If Trump Dollar / Trump Bill, or a plural or possessive form of Trump Dollar / Trump Bill, is stated by Donald Trump after April 1, 2026 at 12:00pm ET and before Jul 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTRUMPSAYTRUMP-26JUL01-DOLL yes 100