Will Trump say "Trump University" before Jul 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that Will Trump say "Trump University" before Jul 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Kalshi, closing July 1, 2026. This market displays extreme illiquidity with only $3.4 in 24-hour volume and open interest, creating a massive 24¢ spread and an implausibly high 15,611% implied yield on the Yes side that reflects pricing dysfunction rather than genuine opportunity.
Analysis
This market displays extreme illiquidity with only $3.4 in 24-hour volume and open interest, creating a massive 24¢ spread and an implausibly high 15,611% implied yield on the Yes side that reflects pricing dysfunction rather than genuine opportunity. The stagnant 7-day price action (flat at 2¢) suggests minimal trading activity and potential staleness, while the 76-day timeframe to expiry and moderate 32 cliff risk index indicate the market has adequate time for resolution but faces execution challenges. The 28¢ price implies a 28% probability Trump mentions Trump University in a ~3-month window, which seems reasonable given his litigation history, but the extreme yield distortion and negligible liquidity make this unsuitable for serious position-taking.
Resolution rules
If Trump University, or a plural or possessive form of Trump University, is stated by Donald Trump after April 1, 2026 at 12:00pm ET and before Jul 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTRUMPSAYTRUMP-26JUL01-UNIV yes 100