Will Tesla Inc. report above 450000 total deliveries in Q2 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 45% probability that Will Tesla Inc. report above 450000 total deliveries in Q2 2026?. This contract trades at 45¢ on Kalshi, closing August 21, 2026. This market is severely illiquid with only $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 8¢ price potentially unreliable.
Analysis
This market is severely illiquid with only $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 8¢ price potentially unreliable. The extreme 3310% implied yield on the Yes side suggests either severe mispricing or that the market lacks sufficient capital to establish a true consensus, particularly given Tesla would need to deliver roughly 112,500 vehicles per month in Q2 2026 to exceed 450,000 units—a 25-30% increase from recent quarterly run rates. With 127 days to expiration and a high cliff risk index of 12, this appears to be a speculative micro-market rather than a reliable price discovery mechanism.
Resolution rules
If Tesla Inc. reports above 450000 total deliveries in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTSLA-26JULDELIV-450000.0 yes 100