Will Tesla Inc. report above 440000 total deliveries in Q2 2026
Leader sits at 97% across 18 bound outcomes, runner-up at 95%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 380000
Outcomes
18
winner-take-all
Runner-up
95¢
above 320000
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$30K
liquid
Closes
Aug 21, 2026
55 days
Venue
Kalshi
18 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Tesla Inc. report above
Will Tesla Inc. report above 440000 total deliveries in Q2 2026?: Above 440000
KXTSLA-26JULDELIV-440000.0
Will Tesla Inc. report above 460000 total deliveries in Q2 2026?: Above 460000
KXTSLA-26JULDELIV-460000.0
Will Tesla Inc. report above 420000 total deliveries in Q2 2026?: above 420000
KXTSLA-26JULDELIV-420000.0
Will Tesla Inc. report above 450000 total deliveries in Q2 2026?: Above 450000
KXTSLA-26JULDELIV-450000.0
Will Tesla Inc. report above 430000 total deliveries in Q2 2026?: above 430000
KXTSLA-26JULDELIV-430000.0
Will Tesla Inc. report above 410000 total deliveries in Q2 2026?: Above 410000
KXTSLA-26JULDELIV-410000.0
Will Tesla Inc. report above 470000 total deliveries in Q2 2026?: Above 470000
KXTSLA-26JULDELIV-470000
Will Tesla Inc. report above 440000 total production in Q2 2026?: Above 440000
KXTSLA-26JULPROD-440000.0
Will Tesla Inc. report above 460000 total production in Q2 2026?: Above 460000
KXTSLA-26JULPROD-460000.0
Will Tesla Inc. report above 380000 total production in Q2 2026?: Above 380000
KXTSLA-26JULPROD-380000.0
Will Tesla Inc. report above 420000 total production in Q2 2026?: Above 420000
KXTSLA-26JULPROD-420000.0
Will Tesla Inc. report above 400000 total deliveries in Q2 2026?: above 400000
KXTSLA-26JULDELIV-400000.0
Will Tesla Inc. report above 410000 total production in Q2 2026?: Above 410000
KXTSLA-26JULPROD-410000
Will Tesla Inc. report above 430000 total production in Q2 2026?: Above 430000
KXTSLA-26JULPROD-430000
Will Tesla Inc. report above 360000 total deliveries in Q2 2026?: Above 360000
KXTSLA-26JULDELIV-360000.0
Will Tesla Inc. report above 320000 total deliveries in Q2 2026?: above 320000
KXTSLA-26JULDELIV-320000.0
Will Tesla Inc. report above 500000 total deliveries in Q2 2026?: Above 500000
KXTSLA-26JULDELIV-500000
Will Tesla Inc. report above 400000 total production in Q2 2026?: Above 400000
KXTSLA-26JULPROD-400000.0
Analysis
The market is pricing a 95% chance that Tesla will deliver more than 440,000 vehicles in Q2 2026. This reflects high confidence based on Tesla's recent production capacity and historical delivery trends. The primary drivers are Tesla's global factory output rates—particularly Shanghai and Berlin ramp performance—and whether demand holds steady through the quarter. Key uncertainties include potential supply chain disruptions, pricing pressure from competition, and macroeconomic shifts affecting EV sales. The outcome resolves when Tesla reports official Q2 2026 delivery figures, typically in early July. The tight clustering of related contracts (430k at 43¢, 440k at 40¢, 450k at 27¢) suggests market participants see modest downside risk but significant probability mass around the 430–450k range.
- ›Tesla's Q1 2026 delivery run rate and whether it sustained or accelerated into Q2
- ›Current operating capacity utilization at Shanghai, Berlin, Austin, and Fremont factories as of May 2026
- ›Industry-wide EV demand trends and competitive pricing pressure in major markets during April–June 2026
- ›Supply chain availability for critical components (batteries, semiconductors) through June 2026
- ›Tesla's stated production guidance or management commentary on Q2 expectations released during May 2026
What moved the line
- Jun 27above 430000↓14pp50→36¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 27above 420000↓11pp65→54¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 27above 400000↓10pp86→76¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 27Above 450000↓9pp40→31¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 27Above 410000↓9pp74→65¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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