Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce the termination of the Renewables Obligation scheme for existing accredited generators before their scheduled end dates before Jan 1, 2028?
Prediction markets currently give a 25% probability that Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce the termination of the Renewables Obligation scheme for existing accredi.... This contract trades at 25¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2028. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $5 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 25¢ price potentially unreliable as a signal of true probability.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $5 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 25¢ price potentially unreliable as a signal of true probability. The 249.3% implied yield on the Yes side is exceptionally high and likely reflects the thin liquidity rather than genuine market conviction that the UK will terminate the Renewables Obligation early. With 624 days to expiration and a modest 4 cliff risk index, there's substantial time for policy developments, though the recent downward price movement from 20¢ to 19¢ suggests slight deterioration in termination odds.
Resolution rules
If the United Kingdom agrees to or announces the termination of the Renewables Obligation scheme for existing accredited generators before their scheduled end dates before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUKRENEWOB-28JAN01-CANC yes 100