Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce the termination of the Renewables Obligation scheme for existing accredited generators before their scheduled end dates before Jan 1, 2028

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that the UK government will formally terminate or announce an end to the Renewables Obligation scheme for existing accredited generators before January 2028, rather than let it run to its natural conclusion. The current 44% level suggests meaningful uncertainty, with the outcome dependent on government energy policy direction and fiscal priorities. The scheme, which incentivizes renewable electricity generation through tradeable certificates, faces pressure from rising costs and changing energy market conditions. The timing matters because early termination would affect generator revenues and investment signals. Key catalysts include the next government spending review, any formal energy policy review, or explicit policy statements from the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero. Market pricing suggests slightly better odds against termination, though significant political and economic variables remain unresolved.

• ›Government spending constraints and budget reviews will influence whether early termination is considered fiscally desirable
• ›The competitive dynamics with other renewable support mechanisms (CFD auctions, future schemes) may make existing Renewables Obligation generators politically disposable
• ›Energy market price movements and generator profitability will affect political pressure for or against early scheme termination
• ›Any formal energy policy review or manifesto commitment by the current government before end-2027 would likely determine the outcome
• ›The administrative and legal complexity of early termination versus letting the scheme expire naturally on schedule may create bureaucratic inertia favoring the status quo

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How we compute these odds