Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Palantir?
Prediction markets currently give a 16% probability that Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Palantir?. This contract trades at 16¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 1424% implied yield on the Yes side despite zero 24-hour volume and only $12,405 open interest, suggesting illiquidity is driving the distorted probability rather than genuine market conviction.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 1424% implied yield on the Yes side despite zero 24-hour volume and only $12,405 open interest, suggesting illiquidity is driving the distorted probability rather than genuine market conviction. The 12¢ price implies just a 12% chance of U.S. government equity ownership in Palantir over the next 259 days, yet Palantir already has deep government relationships (largest customer is DoD) and has been exploring government partnerships, making this outcome arguably underpriced. The high cliff risk index (10) and extreme realized volatility (822%) warn that this thin market could experience sharp repricing on any news of actual government investment discussions.
Also on polymarket at 43¢(Δ -27¢)
Resolution rules
If any part of the United States federal government has taken a stake of Palantir before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-PLTR yes 100