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Any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in any legal vehicle that owns, directly or indirectly, OpenAI’s for-profit operating entity

OpenAI is priced at 45¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 44¢ bid, 45¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 16 inside Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0%.

Price history

45¢ current

+35¢
0¢25¢50¢75¢
May 10, 2026Jun 8, 2026

Contract brief

If any part of the United States federal government has taken a stake of any legal vehicle that primarily owns OpenAI’s for-profit operating entity before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

OpenAI

Rank

#5 of 16

Leader

Rigetti Computing 81¢

Range

7¢-81¢

Family volume

$26K

Identifier

KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-OAI

Jun 8, 2026, 7:38 AM UTC · 15m ago

Implied probability

45¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 8, 2026, 7:38 AM UTC · 15m ago

Bid

44¢

Ask

45¢

Spread

24h volume

$3K

Family rank

#5 of 16

16 outcomes · Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0%

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

Family volume

$26K

Orderbook snapshot

44 / 45¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
44¢1.0K
43¢1.0K
42¢1
41¢200
40¢200
AskSize
45¢1.3K
46¢11
47¢594
49¢200
57¢50

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If any part of the United States federal government has taken a stake of any legal vehicle that primarily owns OpenAI’s for-profit operating entity before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

Identifier

KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-OAI

SF Signal
SF Index
219.44
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

224.5%

IY (No)

138.6%

Adj IY

219%

CRI

1

RV

281%

VR

2.04

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Observability

medium

Event type

political

Full indicator table

224.5%
138.6%
Adj IY
219%
1
RV
281%
VR
2.04
IAR
0.7/h
Overround
5.8%
LAS
0.02

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.