Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in any legal vehicle that owns, directly or indirectly, OpenAI’s for-profit operating entity?
Prediction markets currently give a 15% probability that Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in any legal vehicle that owns, direct.... This contract trades at 15¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 798% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 24.9% on the No side, suggesting significant underpricing of government intervention risk despite the low 15¢ price and minimal 24-hour volume of $0.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 798% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 24.9% on the No side, suggesting significant underpricing of government intervention risk despite the low 15¢ price and minimal 24-hour volume of $0. The 259-day timeframe to resolution and moderate cliff risk index of 6 indicate meaningful uncertainty around potential policy shifts, particularly given ongoing debates about AI governance and national security considerations. With only $11.7k in open interest and a tight 1¢ spread, liquidity is notably constrained, making this a speculative position rather than a liquid market.
Resolution rules
If any part of the United States federal government has taken a stake of any legal vehicle that primarily owns OpenAI’s for-profit operating entity before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-OAI yes 100