Any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in any legal vehicle that owns, directly or indirectly, OpenAI’s for-profit operating entity
OpenAI is priced at 44¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 44¢ bid, 45¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 16 inside Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0%.
Price history
44¢ current
+37¢Contract brief
If any part of the United States federal government has taken a stake of any legal vehicle that primarily owns OpenAI’s for-profit operating entity before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
OpenAI
Rank
#5 of 16
Leader
Rigetti Computing 82¢
Range
6¢-82¢
Family volume
$22K
Identifier
KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-OAI
Jun 8, 2026, 1:38 AM UTC · 9m ago
Implied probability
Bid
44¢
Ask
45¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$2K
Family rank
#5 of 16
16 outcomes · Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0%
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$22K
Orderbook snapshot
44 / 45¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If any part of the United States federal government has taken a stake of any legal vehicle that primarily owns OpenAI’s for-profit operating entity before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-OAI
Event family
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0%.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$22K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Rigetti Computing 82¢
Current share
9%
Rigetti Computing
kalshi · KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-RGTI
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kalshi · KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-QBTS
GlobalFoundries
kalshi · KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-GFS
Anthropic
kalshi · KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-ANTH
Anduril
kalshi · KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-ANDU
OpenAI
kalshi · KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-OAI
Unusual Machines
kalshi · KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-UMAC
Micron
kalshi · KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-MU
IonQ
kalshi · KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-IONQ
Palantir
kalshi · KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-PLTR
Nvidia
kalshi · KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-NVDA
Lockheed Martin
kalshi · KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-LMT
TSMC
kalshi · KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-TSM
Pfizer
kalshi · KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-PFE
Freeport-McMoRan
kalshi · KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-FCX
Spirit Airlines
kalshi · KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-SPI
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 44% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.