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Any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in any legal vehicle that owns, directly or indirectly, OpenAI’s for-profit operating entity

OpenAI is priced at 28¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 25¢ bid, 28¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #7 of 16 inside Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0%.

Price history

28¢ current

+1¢
25¢50¢
Jun 20, 2026Jul 18, 2026

Contract brief

If any part of the United States federal government has taken a stake of any legal vehicle that primarily owns OpenAI’s for-profit operating entity before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

OpenAI

Rank

#7 of 16

Leader

D-Wave Quantum 73¢

Range

3¢-73¢

Family volume

$3K

Identifier

KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-OAI

Jul 20, 2026, 8:38 PM UTC · 6m ago

Implied probability

28¢
Latest venue quote
Jul 20, 2026, 8:38 PM UTC · 6m ago

Bid

25¢

Ask

28¢

Spread

24h volume

$84

Family rank

#7 of 16

16 outcomes · Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0%

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

Family volume

$3K

Orderbook snapshot

25 / 28¢

Kalshi
3¢ spread
BidSize
25¢31
24¢278
23¢585
22¢100
21¢1.0K
AskSize
28¢993
29¢774
38¢25
39¢250
48¢500

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If any part of the United States federal government has taken a stake of any legal vehicle that primarily owns OpenAI’s for-profit operating entity before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

Identifier

KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-OAI

SF Signal
SF Index
333.14
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

666.3%

IY (No)

74.0%

Adj IY

333%

CRI

3

Overround

4.2%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Observability

medium

Event type

political

Full indicator table

666.3%
74.0%
Adj IY
333%
3
Overround
4.2%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.