Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Anduril?
Prediction markets currently give a 22% probability that Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Anduril?. This contract trades at 22¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market is pricing in a 19% probability of U.S.
Analysis
The market is pricing in a 19% probability of U.S. federal government equity stake in Anduril by year-end 2026, with a notably asymmetric risk profile—the Yes side offers 687.6% implied yield versus 28.8% for No, suggesting significant tail-risk pricing for a government investment event. Volume is thin at $75.4 over 24 hours despite $19.9k open interest, and the price has drifted down 1¢ over the past week, indicating weak conviction among traders. The 259-day timeframe and moderate cliff risk (5/10) suggest the outcome depends on specific policy or acquisition decisions rather than imminent catalysts.
Also on polymarket at 18¢(Δ +4¢)
Resolution rules
If any part of the United States federal government has taken a stake of Anduril before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-ANDU yes 100