Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Spirit Airlines
Leader sits at 26% across 17 bound outcomes, runner-up at 25%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Unusual Machines
Outcomes
17
winner-take-all
Runner-up
25¢
Anduril
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$3K
modest
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
103 days
Venue
Kalshi
17 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0%
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Anduril?: Anduril
KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-ANDU
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Micron?: Micron
KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-MU
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Freeport-McMoRan?: Freeport-McMoRan
KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-FCX
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Unusual Machines?: Unusual Machines
KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-UMAC
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Spirit Airlines?: Spirit Airlines
KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-SPI
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Lockheed Martin?: Lockheed Martin
KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-LMT
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Anthropic?: Anthropic
KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-ANTH
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Palantir?: Palantir
KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-PLTR
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Performance Drone Works?: Performance Drone Works
KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-PDW
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Pfizer?: Pfizer
KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-PFE
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Eli Lilly?: Eli Lilly
KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-LLY
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in IonQ?: IonQ
KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-IONQ
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Boeing?: Boeing
KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-BA
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Nvidia?: Nvidia
KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-NVDA
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in TSMC?: TSMC
KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-TSM
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in any legal vehicle that owns, directly or indirectly, OpenAI’s for-profit operating entity?: OpenAI
KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-OAI
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in any legal vehicle that owns, directly or indirectly, TikTok US or ByteDance?: TikTok US
KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-TTOK
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that the U.S. federal government will acquire a stake in Spirit Airlines. At 77%, traders assess government intervention as likely but not certain. The probability is elevated by broader federal policy toward domestic manufacturing and strategic industry support, particularly in semiconductors and defense technology. Recent government equity stakes in companies like GlobalFoundries and interest in reshoring domestic capacity suggest a pattern of direct investment. Spirit Airlines' financial distress and position in domestic air travel could factor into intervention calculations. The main uncertainty involves whether government support, if provided, would take the form of direct equity ownership versus alternative mechanisms like loans or subsidies. Major upcoming events that could clarify intent include quarterly earnings reports, merger developments, or explicit federal statements on aviation sector support policy.
- ›Spirit Airlines' current bankruptcy status or debt restructuring timeline—direct government equity stakes typically follow when companies face severe financial distress or strategic importance intersects with crisis
- ›Explicit statements or legislative actions from the federal government regarding domestic aviation industry support or strategic manufacturing preservation
- ›Precedent from recent federal equity purchases in other sectors (GlobalFoundries, semiconductor investments) indicating appetite and mechanism for direct ownership stakes
- ›Availability of alternative federal support mechanisms (asset purchases, guaranteed loans, operational subsidies) that might substitute for equity stakes
- ›Any announced merger, acquisition, or private investment round in Spirit Airlines that would preempt or alter federal intervention pathways
What moved the line
- Sep 17Unusual Machines↑21pp11→32¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Anduril↑6pp20→26¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Unusual Machines↓6pp32→26¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Eli Lilly↓6pp13→7¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Anduril↑5pp15→20¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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