Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Spirit Airlines
Leader sits at 81% across 19 bound outcomes, runner-up at 80%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Rigetti Computing
Outcomes
19
winner-take-all
Runner-up
80¢
D-Wave Quantum
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$8K
modest
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
209 days
Venue
Kalshi
19 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0%
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in any legal vehicle that owns, directly or indirectly, OpenAI’s for-profit operating entity?: OpenAI
KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-OAI
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Spirit Airlines?: Spirit Airlines
KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-SPI
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Anthropic?: Anthropic
KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-ANTH
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Palantir?: Palantir
KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-PLTR
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Lockheed Martin?: Lockheed Martin
KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-LMT
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Nvidia?: Nvidia
KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-NVDA
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Anduril?: Anduril
KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-ANDU
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Rigetti?: Rigetti Computing
KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-RGTI
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in GlobalFoundries?: GlobalFoundries
KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-GFS
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in TSMC?: TSMC
KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-TSM
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in D-Wave?: D-Wave Quantum
KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-QBTS
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Eli Lilly?: Eli Lilly
KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-LLY
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Boeing?: Boeing
KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-BA
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Neros Technologies?: Neros Technologies
KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-NTEC
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in any legal vehicle that owns, directly or indirectly, TikTok US or ByteDance?: TikTok US
KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-TTOK
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Performance Drone Works?: Performance Drone Works
KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-PDW
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in IonQ?: IonQ
KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-IONQ
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Micron?: Micron
KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-MU
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Freeport-McMoRan?: Freeport-McMoRan
KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-FCX
Analysis
This question asks whether any U.S. federal agency or entity will acquire an ownership stake in Spirit Airlines between now and the resolution date. At 7 cents, traders estimate roughly an 7% probability of this occurring, suggesting skepticism about direct government intervention in the airline. Spirit Airlines has faced financial distress and operational challenges, making it a theoretically possible candidate for government support or acquisition, though this remains a low-probability event. The probability would likely increase if Spirit faces imminent bankruptcy, if the federal government signals industrial policy priorities in aviation, or if political pressure mounts for government action. A potential catalyst would be official bankruptcy filings, Congressional hearings on airline industry consolidation, or explicit policy statements from the Department of Transportation regarding airline sector intervention. Current context includes broader debate about government involvement in strategic industries, though aviation ownership by federal entities remains historically uncommon.
- ›Spirit Airlines' current balance sheet status and debt-to-equity ratio compared to historical government intervention thresholds in other airlines
- ›Recent statements or policy announcements from the Department of Transportation, Federal Reserve, or Treasury regarding airline industry intervention authority
- ›Whether Spirit has filed for bankruptcy protection or missed debt covenants that would trigger government participation mechanisms
- ›Comparison of trading volumes across related government-ownership contracts (Palantir at 18 cents, Lockheed Martin at 22 cents) suggesting relative probability weighting
- ›Precedent from prior airline interventions (e.g., 2008 financial crisis, COVID-19 CARES Act) and statutory authorization for federal equity stakes versus loan guarantees
What moved the line
- May 30Performance Drone Works↓44pp77→33¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 5OpenAI↑38pp11→49¢ · Kalshi
- May 30Neros Technologies↓37pp78→41¢ · Kalshi
- May 31Performance Drone Works↑14pp33→47¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 2GlobalFoundries↑11pp61→72¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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