SimpleFunctions

Any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in any legal vehicle that owns, directly or indirectly, TikTok US or ByteDance

TikTok US is priced at 10¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 10¢ bid, 11¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #12 of 16 inside Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0%.

Price history

10¢ current

+3¢
5¢10¢
May 11, 2026Jun 6, 2026

Contract brief

If any part of the United States federal government has taken a stake of any legal vehicle that primarily owns TikTok US or ByteDance before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

TikTok US

Rank

#12 of 16

Leader

Rigetti Computing 81¢

Range

7¢-81¢

Family volume

$26K

Identifier

KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-TTOK

Jun 8, 2026, 7:38 AM UTC · 15m ago

Implied probability

10¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 8, 2026, 7:38 AM UTC · 15m ago

Bid

10¢

Ask

11¢

Spread

Reported volume

$6K

Family rank

#12 of 16

16 outcomes · Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0%

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

Family volume

$26K

Orderbook snapshot

10 / 11¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
10¢1.6K
8¢26
7¢75
6¢169
5¢14
AskSize
11¢2.7K
12¢54
15¢250
31¢54
68¢2.2K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If any part of the United States federal government has taken a stake of any legal vehicle that primarily owns TikTok US or ByteDance before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

Identifier

KXUSACOMPANYSTAKE-27JAN01-TTOK

SF Signal
SF Index
793.90
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

1587.8%

IY (No)

19.6%

Adj IY

794%

CRI

9

Overround

5.8%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Observability

medium

Event type

political

Full indicator table

1587.8%
19.6%
Adj IY
794%
9
Overround
5.8%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.