Will US personal spending MoM for March 2026 be above -0.1%?
Prediction markets currently give a 97% probability that Will US personal spending MoM for March 2026 be above -0.1%?. This contract trades at 97¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity and pricing dysfunction with zero 24-hour volume and open interest despite a 9-cent spread, suggesting no active trading.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity and pricing dysfunction with zero 24-hour volume and open interest despite a 9-cent spread, suggesting no active trading. The Yes contract at 0¢ implies an absurdly low 0% probability while the No side shows a nonsensical 24,326% implied yield, indicating the market lacks sufficient liquidity to generate reliable price discovery. With only 14 days until expiry and a high cliff risk index of 9, this appears to be a dead market that should be avoided by traders seeking meaningful exposure to March 2026 personal spending data.
Resolution rules
If US personal spending MoM for March 2026 is above -0.1, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUSPSPEND-26APR30-T-0.1 yes 100