Will US personal spending MoM for March 2026 be above -0.3%?
Prediction markets currently give a 97% probability that Will US personal spending MoM for March 2026 be above -0.3%?. This contract trades at 97¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the astronomical 202% implied yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the astronomical 202% implied yield on the Yes side. The 7-cent spread and dramatic 13 Cliff Risk Index suggest pricing dysfunction rather than genuine market consensus, particularly given that a -0.3% monthly decline in personal spending would represent a significant economic contraction. With only 14 days to expiry and near-zero trading activity, this appears to be a dead market where the quoted price reflects minimal actual conviction.
Resolution rules
If US personal spending MoM for March 2026 is above -0.3, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUSPSPEND-26APR30-T-0.3 yes 100