What is the current probability for "Will US personal spending MoM for March 2026 be above 0.0%?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 96¢ (96% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on April 30, 2026. 8 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will US personal spending MoM for March 2026 be above 0.0%?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 392.5% and 51904.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will US personal spending MoM for March 2026 be above 0.0%?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will US personal spending MoM for March 2026 be above 0.0%?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 96% probability that Will US personal spending MoM for March 2026 be above 0.0%?. This contract trades at 96¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme dysfunction with zero liquidity ($0 volume, $0 open interest) and a nonsensical 9¢ spread despite trading at 0¢, suggesting no actual bids or offers exist.

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96¢mid

Bid/Ask 92/100¢·Spread 8¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes Apr 30, 2026·8d remaining

KXUSPSPEND-26APR30-T0.0

7-day price9 snapshots · 4 regime

92¢92¢ current

Apr 133¢Apr 21

Analysis

5d ago

This market shows extreme dysfunction with zero liquidity ($0 volume, $0 open interest) and a nonsensical 9¢ spread despite trading at 0¢, suggesting no actual bids or offers exist. The astronomical implied yields (368.6% for Yes, 19,821% for No) are artifacts of the zero price rather than genuine market expectations, and the recent price movement from 85¢ to 88¢ contradicts the current 0¢ quote, indicating stale or erroneous data. With only 14 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 7, this market appears broken and should not be used for decision-making until liquidity materializes.

Resolution rules

If US personal spending MoM for March 2026 is above 0, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 392.5%

IY (No) 51904.3%

Adj IY 25952%

CRI 12

Overround 7.0%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	392.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	51904.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	25952%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	12	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	7.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

8¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 11:54:50 AM

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 11:53:23 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXUSPSPEND-26APR30-T0.0 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →