Will US personal spending MoM for March 2026 be above 0.4%?
Prediction markets currently give a 58% probability that Will US personal spending MoM for March 2026 be above 0.4%?. This contract trades at 58¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $342 open interest, making the 40¢ price potentially unreliable despite the 9¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $342 open interest, making the 40¢ price potentially unreliable despite the 9¢ spread. The astronomical implied yield of 2692.5% signals severe mispricing typical of thin markets, and the sharp 7-day rally from 30¢ to 50¢ followed by a pullback to 40¢ suggests price discovery is still occurring with just 14 days to expiry. Given that the historical median for US personal spending MoM hovers around 0.3-0.4%, the 40% probability may undervalue the likelihood of exceeding 0.4%, though the lack of liquidity makes this difficult to trade meaningfully.
Resolution rules
If US personal spending MoM for March 2026 is above 0.4, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUSPSPEND-26APR30-T0.4 yes 100