Will US personal spending MoM for March 2026 be above 0.5%?
Prediction markets currently give a 55% probability that Will US personal spending MoM for March 2026 be above 0.5%?. This contract trades at 55¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. The market is pricing in only a 38% probability of March 2026 personal spending exceeding 0.5% MoM, despite the historical median being around 0.3-0.4%, suggesting modest skepticism about above-trend growth.
Analysis
The market is pricing in only a 38% probability of March 2026 personal spending exceeding 0.5% MoM, despite the historical median being around 0.3-0.4%, suggesting modest skepticism about above-trend growth. The 9¢ spread and zero 24-hour volume indicate extremely thin liquidity on just $166 open interest, making the 4772% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical given execution risk. The sharp 16¢ price decline over seven days (from 56¢ to 38¢) combined with only 14 days to expiry and a low Cliff Risk Index of 2 suggests the market may be repricing downward ahead of the March data release, though the thin conditions warrant caution in interpreting directional conviction.
Resolution rules
If US personal spending MoM for March 2026 is above 0.5, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUSPSPEND-26APR30-T0.5 yes 100