Will US building permits for March 2026 be above 1.550M
Leader sits at 94% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 88%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 1.250M
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
88¢
Above 1.300M
Spread
6pp
contested
24h volume
$23
thin orderbook
Closes
Jul 17, 2026
21 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will US building permits for June 2026 be above 1
Will US building permits for June 2026 be above 1.400M?: Above 1.400M
KXBUILDPERMS-26JUL17-T1.400
Will US building permits for June 2026 be above 1.500M?: Above 1.500M
KXBUILDPERMS-26JUL17-T1.500
Will US building permits for June 2026 be above 1.450M?: Above 1.450M
KXBUILDPERMS-26JUL17-T1.450
Will US building permits for June 2026 be above 1.300M?: Above 1.300M
KXBUILDPERMS-26JUL17-T1.300
Will US building permits for June 2026 be above 1.250M?: Above 1.250M
KXBUILDPERMS-26JUL17-T1.250
Analysis
This contract asks whether US building permits will exceed 1.55 million in March 2026, with the current 48% probability suggesting near even odds. Building permits are an early indicator of construction activity and housing market health, making this threshold economically relevant for understanding residential demand. The probability reflects recent permit trends and market expectations around housing supply constraints. Movements would likely reflect incoming data on housing starts, mortgage rates, and consumer confidence affecting builder activity. The data will be published by the Census Bureau in early April 2026, which will definitively resolve the contract.
- ›March 2026 permits must reach or exceed 1,550,000 units to resolve affirmatively, compared to recent monthly permit levels visible in 2025-2026 data
- ›Related April 2026 permits contracts show strong pricing above 1.3M and 1.35M (85¢ and 80¢) but very weak pricing above 1.55M (5¢), indicating market skepticism of sustained high permit activity
- ›US Census Bureau releases monthly building permit data with a lag; the March figure will be published in early April 2026 and cannot be changed after official release
- ›Mortgage rates and interest rate expectations significantly influence builder permit filings, as do inventory levels and demand signals in regional housing markets
- ›Seasonal patterns in permit issuance typically show Q1 weakness relative to spring/summer months, which could weigh on March outcomes
What moved the line
- Jun 21Above 1.250M↑32pp61→93¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Above 1.400M↑28pp45→73¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Above 1.300M↑20pp69→89¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Above 1.400M↓18pp68→50¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Above 1.450M↓5pp35→30¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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