Will US personal spending MoM for March 2026 be above 0.8%?
Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that Will US personal spending MoM for March 2026 be above 0.8%?. This contract trades at 14¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the astronomical 64,869.7% implied yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the astronomical 64,869.7% implied yield on the Yes side. The 9¢ spread and imminent 4/30/2026 expiry (14 days out) suggest this is a dead or newly-created contract with minimal trader interest. The cliff risk index of 24 indicates significant resolution uncertainty, likely because March 2026 personal spending data won't be released until late April, leaving almost no time for price discovery before expiration.
Resolution rules
If US personal spending MoM for March 2026 is above 0.8, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUSPSPEND-26APR30-T0.8 yes 100