Will US personal spending MoM for March 2026 be above 0.9%?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will US personal spending MoM for March 2026 be above 0.9%?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite an 8¢ spread, suggesting minimal trader interest in this outcome.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite an 8¢ spread, suggesting minimal trader interest in this outcome. The 0¢ price implies near-zero probability that March 2026 US personal spending will exceed 0.9% MoM, though the absurdly high implied yield of 63,623% on the Yes side reflects the mathematical artifact of pricing at the floor rather than genuine market conviction. With only 11 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 19, this appears to be a dead market that may fail to attract sufficient liquidity for meaningful resolution.
Resolution rules
If US personal spending MoM for March 2026 is above 0.9, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUSPSPEND-26APR30-T0.9 yes 100