What is the current probability for "Will JD Vance visit Iran before Jul 1, 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 7¢ (7% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on July 1, 2026. 71 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will JD Vance visit Iran before Jul 1, 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 8090.2% and 33.0% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will JD Vance visit Iran before Jul 1, 2026?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will JD Vance visit Iran before Jul 1, 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will JD Vance visit Iran before Jul 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing July 1, 2026. The 7-cent price reflects an extremely low probability of Vice President JD Vance visiting Iran within 76 days, which aligns with geopolitical realities given current US-Iran tensions and diplomatic protocols.

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7¢

Bid/Ask 6/7¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $11,222.52·OI $30,930.75·Closes Jul 1, 2026·71d remaining

KXVISITIRAN-26JUL01-JVAN

7-day price154 snapshots · 54 regime

14¢6¢ current

Apr 81¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

The 7-cent price reflects an extremely low probability of Vice President JD Vance visiting Iran within 76 days, which aligns with geopolitical realities given current US-Iran tensions and diplomatic protocols. However, the extraordinarily high implied yield of 7564% on the Yes side signals either severe mispricing or traders pricing in tail-risk scenarios; combined with 1414% realized volatility and a Cliff Risk Index of 16, this suggests the market is highly sensitive to unexpected diplomatic developments. The modest 24-hour volume of $1,840 and tight 1-cent spread indicate low liquidity for such an extreme outcome, making the price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate.

Resolution rules

If JD Vance has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Iran before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 8090.2%

IY (No) 33.0%

Adj IY 3371%

CRI 16

EE 6.000

Overround -0.7%

▶ Full indicator table (7)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	8090.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	33.0%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	3371%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	16	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
EE	6.000	Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes
Overround	-0.7%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.17	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.438

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:39:56 PM

SF edge 6.0¢ noObservability mediumEvent type political

Edges (2)

NO +6¢thesis — US freezes Russian assets, sanctions Iran, bombs Iran — each action tells the wo

NO +21¢thesis — The United States will launch a ground invasion of Iran. After 5 weeks of airstr

Has thesisHas orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:38:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXVISITIRAN-26JUL01-JVAN yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Event Overround →