Will Marco Rubio visit Iran before Jul 1, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 3% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
3%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$17K
1 contracts
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
5 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will JD Vance visit Iran before Jul 1, 2026
Will JD Vance visit Iran before Jul 1, 2026?: JD Vance
KXVISITIRAN-26JUL01-JVAN
Analysis
This prediction asks whether U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will visit Iran before July 1, 2026—a span of less than two months from today. The 4% probability reflects how unlikely such a visit appears given current geopolitical dynamics. The main factors keeping this low are the absence of announced negotiations, broader U.S.-Iran tensions, and no publicly scheduled diplomatic mission. For the probability to move significantly higher, there would need to be a dramatic policy shift, such as the U.S. initiating formal talks with Iran or a major international incident forcing emergency diplomacy. The related market data shows elevated concern about military conflict with Iran (invasion at 30%) and regime instability (19%), which would typically discourage high-level visits. The narrow timeframe until July 1 means fewer opportunities for such a visit to occur, and no known scheduled diplomatic engagement has been announced that would make this plausible in the next 59 days.
- ›No public announcement of diplomatic negotiations or scheduled state visits between the U.S. and Iran as of May 3, 2026
- ›Related prediction markets pricing Iran invasion risk at 30% and regime instability at 19%, suggesting heightened tensions rather than diplomatic opening
- ›The compressed timeframe of 59 days provides limited window for diplomatic planning and coordination typically required for high-level state visits
- ›Current Rubio statements or public diplomatic posture regarding Iran engagement and bilateral relations
- ›Any breaking developments in nuclear negotiations or military incidents that could trigger emergency diplomatic contact
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (3% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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In iran
Related reading
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The probability that Iran agrees to end uranium enrichment by June 30 has jumped from 40¢ to 60¢, the largest single-day move in this contract. Trading volume is very high, suggesting a potential leak, official statement, or significant progress in talks.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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