Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City before Jun 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City before Jun 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Kalshi, closing June 1, 2026. The 13¢ price reflects extremely low conviction despite Netanyahu's history of UN General Assembly visits to NYC, with the extraordinarily high Yes-side implied yield of 6476% suggesting severe underpricing relative to historical precedent—Netanyahu attended the UNGA in September 2023 and typically appears at such forums.
Analysis
The 13¢ price reflects extremely low conviction despite Netanyahu's history of UN General Assembly visits to NYC, with the extraordinarily high Yes-side implied yield of 6476% suggesting severe underpricing relative to historical precedent—Netanyahu attended the UNGA in September 2023 and typically appears at such forums. The market shows minimal liquidity at just $57 in 24-hour volume against $4,895 open interest, creating a 2¢ spread that may not fully capture the true probability of a visit over the next 46 days, particularly given the UN's September session falls within the resolution window.
Resolution rules
If Benjamin Netanyahu has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of New York City before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXVISITNYC-26JUN01-BNETNYC yes 100