Will Donald Trump visit New York City before Jun 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 29% probability that Will Donald Trump visit New York City before Jun 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 29¢ on Kalshi, closing June 1, 2026. The 40¢ price implies a 40% probability of Trump visiting NYC within 46 days, but the extreme 1,625% implied yield on the Yes side signals severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns given the modest $42.9 daily volume and $6,471 open interest.
Analysis
The 40¢ price implies a 40% probability of Trump visiting NYC within 46 days, but the extreme 1,625% implied yield on the Yes side signals severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns given the modest $42.9 daily volume and $6,471 open interest. The 7¢ spread is notably wide relative to the price, and the 441% realized volatility combined with a low cliff risk index (2) suggests this market has experienced sharp swings despite limited liquidity, making the current price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.
Resolution rules
If Donald Trump has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of New York City before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXVISITNYC-26JUN01-DJTNYC yes 100