Will Greta Thunberg visit New York City before Jun 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Will Greta Thunberg visit New York City before Jun 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Kalshi, closing June 1, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1,220 open interest, and the 9¢ price likely reflects minimal trading activity rather than genuine probability discovery.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1,220 open interest, and the 9¢ price likely reflects minimal trading activity rather than genuine probability discovery. The implied yield on the Yes side (25,905%) is absurdly high due to the low price and short 46-day timeframe, suggesting the market is mispriced or illiquid rather than representing true consensus that Thunberg won't visit NYC. The recent price decline from 5¢ to 3¢ over seven days, combined with the wide spread and elevated cliff risk index of 32, indicates thin order books and potential for sharp moves as the June 1 expiration approaches.
Resolution rules
If Greta Thunberg has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of New York City before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXVISITNYC-26JUN01-GTHUNYC yes 100