Will Kevin Cramer vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?
Prediction markets currently give a 97% probability that Will Kevin Cramer vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?. This contract trades at 97¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $2,950 open interest, making the 97¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 6¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $2,950 open interest, making the 97¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 6¢ spread. A notable 9¢ cross-venue gap exists versus Polymarket's 88¢ price, suggesting Kalshi's higher quote may reflect thin liquidity rather than genuine probability assessment. The asymmetric implied yields (14% vs 1435%) and elevated cliff risk index of 10 indicate significant model uncertainty around the binary outcome, warranting caution before treating this as a reliable 97% confidence level.
Also on polymarket at 62¢(Δ +35¢)
Resolution rules
If Kevin Cramer votes Yea for the next Fed Chair nominee before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXVOTEFEDCHAIR-27-KCRA yes 100