Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing November 7, 2028. This market shows classic characteristics of a low-probability, illiquid long-shot bet with zero recent trading activity despite $70k in open interest.
Analysis
This market shows classic characteristics of a low-probability, illiquid long-shot bet with zero recent trading activity despite $70k in open interest. The 611% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the extreme asymmetry typical of 8¢ contracts, though the 2.5% yield on No suggests modest conviction that AOC won't be selected. With 936 days until expiration and a stable 6¢ price over the past week, this appears to be a "set and forget" position rather than an actively traded market, making the quoted spread potentially misleading given the absence of liquidity.
Resolution rules
If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez accepts the nomination for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXVPRESNOMD-28-AOC yes 100