Will Ruben Gallego be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 6% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
6%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$889
7 contracts
Closes
Nov 7, 2028
866 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party
Cluster 2
Will Gretchen Whitmer be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party
Cluster 3
Will Jon Ossoff be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party
Will Jon Ossoff be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?: Jon Ossoff
KXVPRESNOMD-28-JOSS
Cluster 4
Will Andy Beshear be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party
Will Andy Beshear be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?: Andy Beshear
KXVPRESNOMD-28-AB
Cluster 5
Will Gavin Newsom be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party
Will Gavin Newsom be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?: Gavin Newsom
KXVPRESNOMD-28-GN
Cluster 6
Will Josh Shapiro be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party
Will Josh Shapiro be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?: Josh Shapiro
KXVPRESNOMD-28-JS
Cluster 7
Will Mark Kelly be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party
Will Mark Kelly be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?: Mark Kelly
KXVPRESNOMD-28-MKEL
Analysis
This probability reflects the chances that Ruben Gallego, currently a U.S. Senator from Arizona, becomes the Democratic Party's vice presidential nominee. At 5%, markets suggest this is considered unlikely, though not impossible. The low probability reflects that vice presidential selections typically go to candidates with stronger national profiles, broader geographic appeal, or closer ties to the presumptive presidential nominee. The main factors affecting this probability would be the identity of the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee and whether geographic balance (Arizona representation) or Gallego's specific qualifications appeal to their campaign strategy. The nomination decision will likely be finalized in mid-to-late summer 2028, shortly before the Democratic National Convention. Key developments would include statements from leading presidential contenders about their VP selection criteria and any shifts in Gallego's national prominence or campaign visibility.
- ›Gallego's current public profile and media presence compared to other potential Democratic VP candidates as of mid-2026
- ›Whether the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee values Southwest regional representation or Arizona-specific political assets
- ›Gallego's track record on major legislative priorities and whether these align with likely presidential nominees' policy agendas
- ›The emergence or confirmation of alternative VP candidates with higher name recognition or executive experience
- ›Public endorsements or statements from national Democratic figures regarding Gallego's viability as a running mate
Recently closed in election 2026
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- Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-1last 4% · 1d
- Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02last 47% · 1d
- Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17last 45% · 1d
- Will Christopher Gallant be the Democratic nominee for NY-01last 16% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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