Will Ruben Gallego be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 6% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
6%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$272
7 contracts
Closes
Nov 7, 2028
806 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party
Cluster 2
Will Mark Kelly be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party
Will Mark Kelly be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?: Mark Kelly
KXVPRESNOMD-28-MKEL
Cluster 3
Will Gretchen Whitmer be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party
Cluster 4
Will Jon Ossoff be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party
Will Jon Ossoff be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?: Jon Ossoff
KXVPRESNOMD-28-JOSS
Cluster 5
Will Andy Beshear be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party
Will Andy Beshear be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?: Andy Beshear
KXVPRESNOMD-28-AB
Cluster 6
Will Elissa Slotkin be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party
Cluster 7
Will Gavin Newsom be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party
Will Gavin Newsom be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?: Gavin Newsom
KXVPRESNOMD-28-GN
Analysis
This represents traders' current estimate that Arizona Senator Ruben Gallego has a 7% chance of becoming the Democratic party's Vice Presidential nominee. Gallego sits in the middle tier of candidates being priced, behind frontrunners like Wes Moore (5¢) and Gretchen Whitmer (10¢), but ahead of Mark Kelly (4¢). The probability reflects his profile as a military veteran and southwestern representative, though he faces competition from governors and senators with higher name recognition or broader geographic appeal. The 2024 Vice Presidential selection process involved public vetting, and the 2028 race will similarly depend on the presumptive presidential nominee's strategic considerations around geography, demographics, and governing experience. Key uncertainties include which candidate the Democratic nominee ultimately chooses and how campaign dynamics may elevate or diminish Gallego's standing relative to other potential picks.
- ›Gallego's current pricing at 7% places him outside the top tier of frontrunners (Moore 5¢, Whitmer 10¢, Buttigieg 8¢), suggesting limited trader confidence despite Arizona's electoral significance
- ›His status as a U.S. Senator and military veteran are concrete qualifications, but governors (Whitmer, Moore) currently command higher probabilities, suggesting executive experience may be valued more heavily
- ›The selection will depend entirely on the Democratic presidential nominee's stated criteria and strategic calculus, which remains unknown as of August 2026
- ›No scheduled announcement date or selection mechanism exists yet, meaning this probability remains highly speculative until the nominee makes formal vetting or public statements about VP candidates
- ›Trading volume across VP contracts remains relatively low ($152-$4,721 in 24h volume), indicating thin markets and potentially wide bid-ask spreads that may not reflect deep conviction
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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