Will Gavin Newsom be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Gavin Newsom be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing November 7, 2028. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1261% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 1.2% on the No side, reflecting the low 3¢ price and substantial $78,869 open interest despite zero 24-hour volume.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1261% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 1.2% on the No side, reflecting the low 3¢ price and substantial $78,869 open interest despite zero 24-hour volume. The 2¢ spread is relatively wide for such a low-priced contract, and the 32 Cliff Risk Index suggests meaningful tail risk around the 2028 Democratic convention. With nearly three years until expiration, the stagnant price and lack of recent trading activity indicate this is a speculative position rather than an actively managed market, making the extreme yield figures less actionable than they appear.
Resolution rules
If Gavin Newsom accepts the nomination for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXVPRESNOMD-28-GN yes 100