Will Donald J. Trump be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Donald J. Trump be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing November 7, 2028. This market is pricing an extremely unlikely scenario at 4¢ with a massive 936% implied yield on the Yes side, reflecting the near-zero probability that Trump would accept a VP nomination rather than pursue the presidency directly.
Analysis
This market is pricing an extremely unlikely scenario at 4¢ with a massive 936% implied yield on the Yes side, reflecting the near-zero probability that Trump would accept a VP nomination rather than pursue the presidency directly. The sharp 7-day decline from 5¢ to 4¢ suggests recent repricing downward, though liquidity remains thin at just $27.98 in 24-hour volume against $49k open interest, creating potential execution challenges. With 936 days to expiry, the elevated cliff risk index of 24 warrants caution on position sizing, as late-breaking political developments could trigger sudden volatility despite the current stable neutral regime.
Resolution rules
If Donald J. Trump accepts the nomination for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXVPRESNOMR-28-DJT yes 100