What is the current probability for "Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $180.01 by Dec 31, 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 20¢ (20% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 31, 2026. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $180.01 by Dec 31, 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 613.7% and 33.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $180.01 by Dec 31, 2026?

Prediction markets currently give a 20% probability that Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $180.01 by Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 20¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. The 17% probability reflects an extremely bullish oil price scenario requiring WTI to exceed $180/barrel by year-end 2026, roughly 80% above current levels, with the Yes position offering an extraordinary 740% annualized yield despite 259 days to expiry.

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20¢

Bid/Ask 19/21¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $404.18·OI $231,001·Closes Dec 31, 2026·254d remaining

KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T180

7-day price108 snapshots · 62 regime

20¢19¢ current

Apr 88¢Apr 22

Analysis

5d ago

The 17% probability reflects an extremely bullish oil price scenario requiring WTI to exceed $180/barrel by year-end 2026, roughly 80% above current levels, with the Yes position offering an extraordinary 740% annualized yield despite 259 days to expiry. The massive 666% realized volatility and 2.46 vol ratio suggest the market is pricing in substantial oil price swings, though the modest $1,650 daily volume and $228k open interest indicate relatively thin liquidity for such an extreme outcome. The recent price climb from 14¢ to 16¢ over seven days combined with a neutral regime score (0.442) suggests cautious accumulation rather than conviction, making this a speculative tail-risk bet on geopolitical disruption or supply shock.

Resolution rules

If ICE reports that the maximum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is above $180 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 613.7%

IY (No) 33.8%

Adj IY 291%

CRI 4

Overround 2.4%

LAS 0.05

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	613.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	33.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	291%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	2.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.05	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.442

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 6:41:29 AM

SF edge 11.0¢ yesObservability lowEvent type financial

Edges (5)

NO +11¢thesis — Putin profits from Iran war oil prices. Russian military budget fully funded. Uk

NO +4¢thesis — Trump cannot exit the Iran war gracefully. His operating system does not support

NO +19¢thesis — The United States will launch a ground invasion of Iran. After 5 weeks of airstr

NO +39¢thesis — The Hormuz Strait is America's final battle — not because it will lose militaril

NO +11¢thesis — Oil above $100 drives electricity costs up. Data center operating costs surge. A

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 6:38:23 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T180 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →