Will XRP trimmed mean be below $0.60 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will XRP trimmed mean be below $0.60 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $24 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 4¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $24 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 4¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading. The astronomical 62,180% implied yield on the Yes side suggests severe mispricing or reflects the market's difficulty pricing such a low-probability event over a 14-month horizon. With XRP's historical volatility and the broad $0.60 threshold, the 4% probability appears undervalued, though the negligible liquidity and high cliff risk index (24) mean this contract is better suited for analysis than execution.
Resolution rules
If the price of XRP after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026 is ever below $0.60, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXXRPMINMON-XRP-26APR30-060 yes 100