SimpleFunctions
ClosedLast odds shown below are frozen at close (Jun 1, 2026). Future questions tracked on /odds.
Winner-take-all answer·4 source contracts·Kalshi 4·closed just now·Closes Jun 1, 2026 · 0d

Will XRP trimmed mean be below $1.10 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026

Leader sits at 5% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

5%

Below $1.10

runner-up 4¢leader 5¢

Outcomes

4

winner-take-all

Runner-up

Below $1.20

Spread

1pp

contested

24h volume

$9

thin orderbook

Closes

Jun 1, 2026

0 days

Venue

Kalshi

4 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayBelow $1.10: 4% (10 days, 7 points)Below $1.10: 4% on 2026-05-28Below $1.20: 4% (10 days, 10 points)Below $1.20: 4% on 2026-05-31Below $0.80: 4% on 2026-05-22
Below $1.104¢Below $1.204¢Below $0.804¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 10d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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