Will XRP trimmed mean be below $0.80 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will XRP trimmed mean be below $0.80 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 48,903% implied yield on the Yes side despite near-zero volume ($0 in 24h) and minimal open interest of $372.41, suggesting illiquidity is driving the distorted odds rather than genuine probability assessment.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 48,903% implied yield on the Yes side despite near-zero volume ($0 in 24h) and minimal open interest of $372.41, suggesting illiquidity is driving the distorted odds rather than genuine probability assessment. The price has tripled from 2¢ to 5¢ over seven days with a wide 3¢ spread, indicating thin order books and potential manipulation risk. With XRP currently trading well above $0.80 and only 14 days to expiration, the 5% probability appears artificially depressed—the cliff risk index of 19 suggests significant uncertainty around resolution mechanics or data feed reliability.
Resolution rules
If the price of XRP after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026 is ever below $0.80, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXXRPMINMON-XRP-26APR30-080 yes 100