Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will the unemployment rate for ages 16 to 24 (seasonally adjusted) for 2026 fall below 7.5%?"?

Accepted Answer

This prediction market is currently priced at 17¢ (17% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 4, 2026. 220 days remaining.

Question 2

What is the implied yield on "Will the unemployment rate for ages 16 to 24 (seasonally adjusted) for 2026 fall below 7.5%?"?

Accepted Answer

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1678.1% and 16.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Question 3

Where can I trade "Will the unemployment rate for ages 16 to 24 (seasonally adjusted) for 2026 fall below 7.5%?"?

Accepted Answer

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1678.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	16.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	186%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	10	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
LAS	0.78	Liquidity Availability Score

Will the unemployment rate for ages 16 to 24 (seasonally adjusted) for 2026 fall below 7.5%?

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