Unemployment rate in May 2026
Leader sits at 21% across 17 bound outcomes, runner-up at 20%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Exactly 4.6%
Outcomes
17
winner-take-all
Runner-up
20¢
Exactly 4.5%
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Sep 4, 2026
89 days
Venue
Kalshi
17 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Unemployment rate
Unemployment rate in Aug 2026?: Exactly 4.2%
KXECONSTATU3-26AUG-T4.2
Unemployment rate in Jul 2026?: Exactly 4.8%
KXECONSTATU3-26JUL-T4.8
Unemployment rate in Jul 2026?: Exactly 4.7%
KXECONSTATU3-26JUL-T4.7
Unemployment rate in Jul 2026?: Exactly 4.6%
KXECONSTATU3-26JUL-T4.6
Unemployment rate in Jul 2026?: Exactly 4.4%
KXECONSTATU3-26JUL-T4.4
Unemployment rate in Jul 2026?: Exactly 4.3%
KXECONSTATU3-26JUL-T4.3
Unemployment rate in Jul 2026?: Exactly 4.2%
KXECONSTATU3-26JUL-T4.2
Unemployment rate in Jul 2026?: Exactly 4.1%
KXECONSTATU3-26JUL-T4.1
Unemployment rate in Jul 2026?: Exactly 4.0%
KXECONSTATU3-26JUL-T4.0
Unemployment rate in Jul 2026?: Exactly 3.4%
KXECONSTATU3-26JUL-T3.4
Unemployment rate in Jul 2026?: Exactly 3.3%
KXECONSTATU3-26JUL-T3.3
Unemployment rate in Aug 2026?: Exactly 4.8%
KXECONSTATU3-26AUG-T4.8
Unemployment rate in Aug 2026?: Exactly 4.7%
KXECONSTATU3-26AUG-T4.7
Unemployment rate in Aug 2026?: Exactly 4.6%
KXECONSTATU3-26AUG-T4.6
Unemployment rate in Aug 2026?: Exactly 4.5%
KXECONSTATU3-26AUG-T4.5
Unemployment rate in Aug 2026?: Exactly 4.4%
KXECONSTATU3-26AUG-T4.4
Unemployment rate in Aug 2026?: Exactly 4.3%
KXECONSTATU3-26AUG-T4.3
Analysis
This 29% probability reflects market expectations that the May 2026 unemployment rate will be exactly 3.9%, based on trading activity on Kalshi contracts. The prediction centers on a narrow range between 3.9% and 4.3%, suggesting relatively stable labor market conditions. Employment outcomes depend primarily on recent job creation trends, initial jobless claims patterns, and broader economic growth momentum. The unemployment rate will be officially released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in early June 2026, resolving all uncertainty around this metric. Leading economic indicators from late April and May—including payroll reports, labor force participation rates, and any recession signals—will significantly influence the final reading and determine whether actual unemployment tracks toward or away from the 3.9% consensus estimate.
- ›May 2026 BLS employment report will show the exact unemployment rate; official release scheduled for early June 2026
- ›Recent monthly job creation figures and initial jobless claims data through May will directly drive the unemployment reading
- ›Labor force participation rate changes could offset headline employment gains or losses
- ›Any significant economic shocks or policy changes between now and the May data collection period could shift outcomes
- ›The tight contract pricing (ranging 4¢–9¢) indicates low absolute probability for any single outcome, reflecting high uncertainty
What moved the line
- Jun 5Exactly 4.3%↑7pp9→16¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 5Exactly 4.1%↓3pp7→4¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 6Exactly 4.3%↑3pp16→19¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 5Exactly 4.6%↓3pp5→2¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in recession
- Will the Truflation US CPI Housing Inflation Index on Jun 5, 2026 be above -0.08%last 3% · 1d
- Will Euro area inflation rate YoY flash for April 2026 be above 2.7%Above 2.7%last 86% · 5d
- Brazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026?: 1.9%–2.2%last 48% · 7d
- Will Euro area GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 be above 1.6%last 61% · 8d
- Will France inflation rate YoY prel for April 2026 be above 1.9%Above 1.9%last 97% · 8d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in recession.
In recession
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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