Unemployment rate in May 2026
Leader sits at 17% across 18 bound outcomes, runner-up at 12%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Exactly 4.4%
Outcomes
18
winner-take-all
Runner-up
12¢
Exactly 4.2%
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$4K
modest
Closes
Dec 4, 2026
134 days
Venue
Kalshi
18 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Unemployment rate
Unemployment rate in Aug 2026?: Exactly 4.5%
KXECONSTATU3-26AUG-T4.5
Unemployment rate in Aug 2026?: Exactly 4.6%
KXECONSTATU3-26AUG-T4.6
Unemployment rate in Oct 2026?: Exactly 4.6%
KXECONSTATU3-26OCT-T4.6
Unemployment rate in Sep 2026?: Exactly 4.6%
KXECONSTATU3-26SEP-T4.6
Unemployment rate in Aug 2026?: Exactly 4.2%
KXECONSTATU3-26AUG-T4.2
Unemployment rate in Sep 2026?: Exactly 5.0%
KXECONSTATU3-26SEP-T5.0
Unemployment rate in Sep 2026?: Exactly 4.9%
KXECONSTATU3-26SEP-T4.9
Unemployment rate in Sep 2026?: Exactly 4.8%
KXECONSTATU3-26SEP-T4.8
Unemployment rate in Aug 2026?: Exactly 4.9%
KXECONSTATU3-26AUG-T4.9
Unemployment rate in Aug 2026?: Exactly 4.8%
KXECONSTATU3-26AUG-T4.8
Unemployment rate in Aug 2026?: Exactly 4.7%
KXECONSTATU3-26AUG-T4.7
Unemployment rate in Jul 2026?: Exactly 4.1%
KXECONSTATU3-26JUL-T4.1
Unemployment rate in Sep 2026?: Exactly 4.5%
KXECONSTATU3-26SEP-T4.5
Unemployment rate in Oct 2026?: Exactly 4.7%
KXECONSTATU3-26OCT-T4.7
Unemployment rate in Nov 2026?: Exactly 4.9%
KXECONSTATU3-26NOV-T4.9
Unemployment rate in Nov 2026?: Exactly 4.6%
KXECONSTATU3-26NOV-T4.6
Unemployment rate in Aug 2026?: Exactly 4.4%
KXECONSTATU3-26AUG-T4.4
Unemployment rate in Jul 2026?: Exactly 4.4%
KXECONSTATU3-26JUL-T4.4
Analysis
Markets currently assign a 34% probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be exactly 4.3% in July 2026, with 4.2% as the second-most-likely outcome at 28%. This reflects traders' expectations about near-term labor-market conditions. The unemployment rate depends on job creation, labor-force participation, and seasonal hiring patterns over the coming weeks. The July jobs report—scheduled for early August 2026—will definitively resolve which outcome occurs, providing official data on employment changes, unemployment levels, and workforce participation for the month. Until then, market prices aggregate expectations based on recent economic data, Federal Reserve policy signals, and ongoing labor-market trends. The concentration of probability across just two adjacent outcomes (4.2–4.3%) suggests traders expect relatively stable conditions rather than significant labor-market deterioration or rapid improvement.
- ›The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release official July 2026 employment data in early August, directly determining the actual unemployment rate and resolving all contracts
- ›Recent monthly jobs reports and labor-force participation trends will influence whether the rate remains near current levels or shifts meaningfully in either direction
- ›Federal Reserve interest-rate decisions and forward guidance between now and July will affect hiring behavior and market expectations about labor-market slack
- ›Seasonal adjustment patterns in summer months historically influence reported unemployment rates and job creation figures
- ›Economic data released between mid-July and early August—such as jobless claims, ISM surveys, or unexpected business closures—could shift trader expectations before the final jobs report
What moved the line
- Jul 23Exactly 4.5%↓7pp17→10¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 22Exactly 4.6%↓4pp11→7¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 22Exactly 4.2%↑4pp6→10¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 22Exactly 4.5%↓3pp16→13¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 22Exactly 4.6%↓3pp13→10¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in recession
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- Will China GDP growth rate YoY for Q2 2026 be above 3.4%last 74% · 7d
- Will the tariff rate on China imports be between 10% and 19.99% on Jul 1, 2026last 95% · 22d
- Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between 20% and 29.99% on Jul 1, 2026last 95% · 22d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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