Al Najmah Saudi Club vs. Al Taawoun Saudi Club: O/U 3.5
Prediction markets currently give a 35% probability that Al Najmah Saudi Club vs. Al Taawoun Saudi Club: O/U 3.5. This contract trades at 35¢ on Polymarket, closing April 23, 2026. This market shows extreme distress signals with the Over at 35¢ down sharply from 49¢ over seven days, suggesting strong market conviction toward Under 3.5 goals despite a massive 11,448% implied yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
This market shows extreme distress signals with the Over at 35¢ down sharply from 49¢ over seven days, suggesting strong market conviction toward Under 3.5 goals despite a massive 11,448% implied yield on the Yes side. The $0 24-hour volume combined with $502k open interest and a wide 12¢ spread indicates severe illiquidity and potential difficulty exiting positions, while the 626% realized volatility and 2.0 cliff risk index suggest this is a highly unstable market prone to sharp moves near the April 23 resolution. With only 6 days to expiry and an information arrival rate of 1.6 events per hour, any team news or lineup changes could trigger significant repricing, making this a high-risk venue for both sides.
Resolution rules
In the upcoming Saudi Professional League game between Al Najmah Saudi Club and Al Taawoun Saudi Club, scheduled for April 23 at 12:10 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Al Najmah Saudi Club and Al Taawoun Saudi Club combine to score 4 or more goals in this game. If the combined total is less than 4, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on slstat.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Indicators
▶ Full indicator table (3)▼ Full indicator table (3)
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Adj IY | 50000% |
| CRI | 2 |
| Overround | 2.1% |
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x1084830ce3b53d7c1d1d14fa214aa0ba80a732fca29d8caf16f379dcd0e72794 yes 100