SimpleFunctions
3 source contracts·Kalshi 3·refreshed just now·Closes Jan 20, 2029 · 940d

Al Najmah Saudi Club vs. Al Taawoun Saudi Club - More Markets: O/U 2.5

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 40% across 3 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

40%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

40%

3 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$51

3 contracts

Closes

Jan 20, 2029

940 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 13% (30 days, 30 points)Aggregate: 13% on 2026-06-25
Aggregate of 3 contracts · 30d

Bracket families

2 clusters across 3 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 8% of their title tokens — “Will Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before Jan” vs “Where will Mohamed Salah go next”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Analysis

This probability reflects the likelihood of more than 2.5 total goals in a match between Al Najmah and Al Taawoun, two Saudi Pro League clubs. The 40% probability suggests expectations lean toward lower-scoring outcomes or tighter defensive performances. This level would typically reflect recent team form, defensive capabilities, and head-to-head scoring patterns. The probability could shift based on lineup announcements, particularly injury status of key attacking or defensive players for either side. The match itself will definitively resolve whether the total exceeds 2.5 goals, providing clear market feedback on whether pre-match expectations aligned with actual play.

  • Recent combined scoring rates for both teams in league play this season compared to historical averages
  • Availability status of primary strikers and key defensive players for both Al Najmah and Al Taawoun entering match day
  • Head-to-head goal scoring history between these specific teams over their last 5-10 meetings
  • Home/away performance differential, particularly whether the match location favors attacking or defensive tactical approaches
  • Weather conditions on match day that could affect field conditions and playing style

What moved the line

  • Jun 23Any Saudi Pro League Club7pp6053¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 19Saudi Arabia4pp128¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 22Saudi Arabia3pp710¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 23Saudi Arabia3pp1013¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: just now.