What is the current probability for "Alperen Sengun: 1+ blocks"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 68¢ (68% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 6, 2026. 14 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Alperen Sengun: 1+ blocks"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1481.1% and 4294.1% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Alperen Sengun: 1+ blocks"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Alperen Sengun: 1+ blocks

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 68% probability that Alperen Sengun: 1+ blocks. This contract trades at 68¢ on Kalshi, closing May 6, 2026.

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68¢

Bid/Ask 64/68¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $16·OI $16·Closes May 6, 2026·14d remaining

KXNBABLK-26APR21HOULAL-HOUASENGUN28-1

7-day price64 snapshots · 2 regime

65¢63¢ current

Apr 208¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

If Alperen Sengun records 1+ Blocks in the Houston at Los Angeles L professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1481.1%

IY (No) 4294.1%

Adj IY 4294%

CRI 2

RV 11216%

VR 5.64

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1481.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	4294.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	4294%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	11216%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	5.64	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.9/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	1.6%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

4¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 3:17:10 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 3:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNBABLK-26APR21HOULAL-HOUASENGUN28-1 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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