Australia unemployment rate in Apr 2026?

Prediction markets currently give a 94% probability that Australia unemployment rate in Apr 2026?. This contract trades at 94¢ on Kalshi, closing May 21, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the quoted metrics unreliable—the 9¢ spread and astronomical 8677.7% implied yield on the "No" side are artifacts of a dead market rather than genuine pricing signals.

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94¢mid
Bid/Ask 89/99¢·Spread 10¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes May 21, 2026·29d remaining
KXUE-AUS26APRIL-4.0

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the quoted metrics unreliable—the 9¢ spread and astronomical 8677.7% implied yield on the "No" side are artifacts of a dead market rather than genuine pricing signals. The 0¢ price suggests near-certain expectation that Australia's unemployment will remain at or below 4.0% in April 2026, though with only 34 days to expiry and no trading activity, this reflects minimal market conviction. The cliff risk index of 8 indicates high sensitivity to the resolution threshold, compounded by the illiquidity that would make any actual position difficult to exit.

Resolution rules

If the Australia unemployment rate is above 4.0% for Apr 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 153.8%
IY (No) 10070.9%
Adj IY 5035%
CRI 8
Overround 4.4%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)153.8%
IY (No)10070.9%
Adj IY5035%
CRI8
Overround4.4%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
10¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 5:39:18 PM
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 5:38:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXUE-AUS26APRIL-4.0 yes 100

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