Will the Republican Party win the CA-01 House seat?

This CA-01 Republican market is pricing in an extremely unlikely outcome at just 5¢, implying only a 5% win probability despite the district's historical leanability and the 200-day timeframe allowing for significant political shifts. The astronomical 3,467% implied yield on the Yes side contrasts sharply with near-zero 24-hour volume and a wide 3¢ spread, suggesting this is a highly illiquid, potentially mispriced contract where the extreme yield reflects the low absolute price rather than genuine opportunity. The 922% realized volatility and elevated cliff risk index (19) indicate this market experiences sharp, unpredictable moves, likely driven by sparse information arrival (0.3/h) and thin order books rather than fundamental developments.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

Trade