Will the Republican Party win the CA-22 House seat?

This CA-22 market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1.88M open interest, suggesting the quoted 31¢ price may not reflect true market consensus and the 11¢ spread indicates significant bid-ask uncertainty. The 404% implied yield on the "Yes" side is unusually high relative to the 81.6% on "No," paired with exceptional 586% realized volatility and a 2.83 vol ratio, suggesting either mispricing or anticipation of significant information arrival (1.8 events per hour). With 201 days to expiration and a neutral regime, this appears to be a thin, potentially inefficient market where the Republican underdog pricing may not hold if volume eventually materializes.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

Trade