Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro win on 2026-04-25?

This market exhibits extreme illiquidity and pricing dysfunction with zero 24-hour volume despite $205k open interest and a massive 52¢ bid-ask spread, suggesting the 35¢ price may not reflect true consensus. The astronomical 11,700% implied yield on the Yes side combined with 1,163% realized volatility indicates severe mispricing or a technical issue, as these metrics are economically implausible for a sports event just 6 days from resolution. With only 1.5 information arrivals per hour and a Cliff Risk Index of 2, this appears to be a stale or abandoned market where the quoted price should be treated with extreme skepticism.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for April 25, 2026 If CA San Lorenzo de Almagro wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

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