Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 49% probability that Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?. This contract trades at 49¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027. The market prices the Clarity Act at 64% probability with a notably asymmetric yield structure—the "No" side offers 261.7% annualized return versus 75.9% for "Yes," suggesting sophisticated traders see meaningful downside risk despite the majority-lean pricing.
Analysis
The market prices the Clarity Act at 64% probability with a notably asymmetric yield structure—the "No" side offers 261.7% annualized return versus 75.9% for "Yes," suggesting sophisticated traders see meaningful downside risk despite the majority-lean pricing. With $20k open interest against $3.2k daily volume and a tight 2¢ spread, liquidity is moderate but the 141% realized volatility and 1.54 vol ratio indicate this market has experienced sharp swings, likely driven by legislative developments tracked at a 0.5 info arrivals per hour rate. At 259 days to expiry, there's ample time for congressional action, though the neutral regime score (0.409) and low cliff risk (2) suggest the market is currently pricing this as a genuine toss-up rather than bracing for imminent resolution.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x9cb23d04b2ded06147482076688b69b487a8d982c63ebdda2ab3678cf27cf390 yes 100