Will sports prediction markets be banned?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 27% across 23 contracts. Kalshi at 30%, Polymarket at 20% — a 10pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
30%
15 contracts
Polymarket
20%
8 contracts
Cross-venue gap
10pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$84K
23 contracts
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 30¢ · Polymarket 20¢ · 10pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (20¢, 8 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (30¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
19 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 8% of their title tokens — “Which DCMs self-certify sports event contracts by December 31” vs “Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Which DCMs self-certify sports event contracts by December 31
Cluster 2
Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling
Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling?
0x3a7fe8…e2a3
Cluster 3
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?
0x3ef184…35b4
Cluster 4
scotus accepts sports event contract case by...? : december 31
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by...? : December 31
0x68e234…eb20
Cluster 5
Will Parker Messick be selected as a finalist for the Pro Baseball American League Cy Young in the 2026 season
Cluster 6
Will Sonny Gray be selected as a finalist for the Pro Baseball American League Cy Young in the 2026 season
Cluster 7
Will any team that finished in 4th place within their division during the 2025-26 Pro Football regular season finish in 1st place within their division during the 2026-27 regular season
Cluster 8
Will Mason Miller be selected as a finalist for the Pro Baseball National League Cy Young in the 2026 season
Cluster 9
Will Gavin Williams be selected as a finalist for the Pro Baseball American League Cy Young in the 2026 season
Cluster 10
Will Yoshinobu Yamamoto be selected as a finalist for the Pro Baseball National League Cy Young in the 2026 season
Cluster 11
Will Bryan Woo be selected as a finalist for the Pro Baseball American League Cy Young in the 2026 season
Cluster 12
Will Dillon Dingler be selected as a finalist for the Pro Baseball American League MVP in the 2026 season
Cluster 13
Will Ceddanne Rafaela be selected as a finalist for the Pro Baseball American League MVP in the 2026 season
Cluster 14
Will Chris Sale be selected as a finalist for the Pro Baseball National League Cy Young in the 2026 season
Cluster 15
Will Jesús Luzardo be selected as a finalist for the Pro Baseball National League Cy Young in the 2026 season
Cluster 16
Will Drew Rasmussen be selected as a finalist for the Pro Baseball American League Cy Young in the 2026 season
Cluster 17
Will Paul Skenes be selected as a finalist for the Pro Baseball National League Cy Young in the 2026 season
Cluster 18
Will Chase Burns be selected as a finalist for the Pro Baseball National League Cy Young in the 2026 season
Cluster 19
Will Shohei Ohtani be selected as a finalist for the Pro Baseball National League MVP in the 2026 season
What moved the line
- Aug 7Will Parker Messick be selected as a finalist for the Pro Baseball American League Cy Young in the 2026 season?↑17pp28→45¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in legislation
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act becomes law without Donald Trump’s signature before Jul 14, 2026last 97% · 25d
- Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026last 97% · 59d
- Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...last 97% · 63d
- Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026last 94% · 77d
- Will a reconciliation bill become law before Jan 1, 2028last 3% · 17d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In legislation
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.