Will sports prediction markets be banned?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 14% across 10 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
14%
10 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1.1M
10 contracts
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
10 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 10 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 17% of their title tokens — “Which DCMs self-certify sports event contracts by June 30” vs “SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Which DCMs self-certify sports event contracts by June 30
Which DCMs self-certify sports event contracts by June 30?: ICE
0x309477…107d
Which DCMs self-certify sports event contracts by June 30?: Aristotle
0xd5d09b…56a2
Which DCMs self-certify sports event contracts by June 30?: ForecastEx
0xac6cdc…f2ab
Which DCMs self-certify sports event contracts by June 30?: The Clearing Company
0x3ba33a…f066
Which DCMs self-certify sports event contracts by June 30?: CBOE
0xe751b3…fc84
Which DCMs self-certify sports event contracts by June 30?: Small Exchange
0x7ddaa8…2e74
Cluster 2
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by
Cluster 3
Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling
Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling?
0x3a7fe8…e2a3
Cluster 4
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?
0x3ef184…35b4
What moved the line
- Jun 17Aristotle↓10pp30→20¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 14Aristotle↓9pp47→38¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 17December 31↑7pp27→34¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 16Small Exchange↓5pp10→5¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 15Aristotle↓4pp38→34¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In legislation
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.