Will sports prediction markets be banned?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 26% across 25 contracts. Kalshi at 34%, Polymarket at 12% — a 22pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
34%
15 contracts
Polymarket
12%
10 contracts
Cross-venue gap
22pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1.1M
25 contracts
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
5 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 34¢ · Polymarket 12¢ · 22pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (12¢, 10 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (34¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
16 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Which DCMs self-certify sports event contracts by June 30” vs “Will Max Verstappen finish top 3 in the main race at the 2026”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Which DCMs self-certify sports event contracts by June 30
Cluster 2
Will Max Verstappen finish top 3 in the main race at the 2026
Cluster 3
Will Lewis Hamilton finish top 3 in the main race at the 2026
Cluster 4
Will George Russell finish top 3 in the main race at the 2026
Cluster 5
scotus accepts sports event contract case by...? : july 31
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by...? : July 31
0x139ba0…452f
Cluster 6
Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling
Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling?
0x3a7fe8…e2a3
Cluster 7
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?
0x3ef184…35b4
Cluster 8
Will Oscar Piastri finish top 3 in the main race at the 2026 Austrian Grand Prix
Will Oscar Piastri finish top 3 in the main race at the 2026 Austrian Grand Prix?
KXF1RACEPODIUM-AUTGP26-PIA
Cluster 9
Will Lando Norris finish top 3 in the main race at the 2026 Austrian Grand Prix
Will Lando Norris finish top 3 in the main race at the 2026 Austrian Grand Prix?
KXF1RACEPODIUM-AUTGP26-NOR
Cluster 10
Will Nico Hulkenberg finish top 3 in the main race at the 2026 Austrian Grand Prix
Will Nico Hulkenberg finish top 3 in the main race at the 2026 Austrian Grand Prix?
KXF1RACEPODIUM-AUTGP26-HUL
Cluster 11
Will Charles Leclerc finish top 3 in the main race at the 2026 British Grand Prix
Will Charles Leclerc finish top 3 in the main race at the 2026 British Grand Prix?
KXF1RACEPODIUM-BRIGP26-LEC
Cluster 12
Will Pierre Gasly finish top 3 in the main race at the 2026 British Grand Prix
Will Pierre Gasly finish top 3 in the main race at the 2026 British Grand Prix?
KXF1RACEPODIUM-BRIGP26-GAS
Cluster 13
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli finish top 3 in the main race at the 2026 British Grand Prix
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli finish top 3 in the main race at the 2026 British Grand Prix?
KXF1RACEPODIUM-BRIGP26-ANT
Cluster 14
Will Isack Hadjar finish top 3 in the main race at the 2026 British Grand Prix
Will Isack Hadjar finish top 3 in the main race at the 2026 British Grand Prix?
KXF1RACEPODIUM-BRIGP26-HAD
Cluster 15
Will Valtteri Bottas finish top 3 in the main race at the 2026 British Grand Prix
Will Valtteri Bottas finish top 3 in the main race at the 2026 British Grand Prix?
KXF1RACEPODIUM-BRIGP26-BOT
Cluster 16
Will Arvid Lindblad finish top 3 in the main race at the 2026 British Grand Prix
Will Arvid Lindblad finish top 3 in the main race at the 2026 British Grand Prix?
KXF1RACEPODIUM-BRIGP26-LIN
What moved the line
- Jun 24Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli finish top 3 in the main race at the 2026 British Grand Prix?↑48pp25→73¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Will George Russell finish top 3 in the main race at the 2026 British Grand Prix?↑38pp25→63¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Will Charles Leclerc finish top 3 in the main race at the 2026 British Grand Prix?↑36pp17→53¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Will Lewis Hamilton finish top 3 in the main race at the 2026 British Grand Prix?↑26pp30→56¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Will Max Verstappen finish top 3 in the main race at the 2026 British Grand Prix?↑8pp23→31¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.