SimpleFunctions
ClosedLast odds shown below are frozen at close (Jun 20, 2026). Future questions tracked on /odds.
10 source contracts·Polymarket 10·closed just now·Closes Jun 30, 2026 · 10d

Will sports prediction markets be banned?

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 14% across 10 Polymarket contracts.

Implied probability

14%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

not bound

Polymarket

14%

10 contracts

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$1.1M

10 contracts

Closes

Jun 30, 2026

10 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 25% (28 days, 28 points)Aggregate: 25% on 2026-06-18
Aggregate of 10 contracts · 28d

Bracket families

4 clusters across 10 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 17% of their title tokens — “Which DCMs self-certify sports event contracts by June 30” vs “SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

What moved the line

  • Jun 17Aristotle10pp3020¢ · Polymarket
  • Jun 14Aristotle9pp4738¢ · Polymarket
  • Jun 17December 317pp2734¢ · Polymarket
  • Jun 16Small Exchange5pp105¢ · Polymarket
  • Jun 15Aristotle4pp3834¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in legislation

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: just now.