Club Universitario de Deportes vs. CD Garcilaso: Both Teams to Score

Prediction markets currently give a 41% probability that Club Universitario de Deportes vs. CD Garcilaso: Both Teams to Score. This contract trades at 41¢ on Polymarket, closing April 23, 2026. This market displays extreme illiquidity and pricing dysfunction with zero 24-hour volume despite $193k open interest and a massive 57¢ spread, suggesting the 46¢ price may not reflect true probability.

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41¢
Bid/Ask 39/43¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $0·OI $3,194.348·Closes Apr 23, 2026·0d remaining
0xc59292337c6c29c3f9d17fd47d169ca80c69ccf4286377b1408838987a3abd36
7-day price75 snapshots · 6 regime
51¢41¢ current
Apr 1829¢Apr 22

Analysis

3d ago

This market displays extreme illiquidity and pricing dysfunction with zero 24-hour volume despite $193k open interest and a massive 57¢ spread, suggesting the 46¢ price may not reflect true probability. The implied yields exceeding 12,000% are mathematical artifacts of the wide bid-ask gap rather than genuine opportunities, and with only 4 days to expiry and a match scheduled for April 22, the market is essentially frozen with no price discovery mechanism. The 567% realized volatility and near-zero info arrival rate (0.5/h) indicate this is a dead market where any trade would face severe slippage, making it unsuitable for analysis or participation.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming Peru Liga 1 game between Club Universitario de Deportes and CD Garcilaso, scheduled for April 22 at 9:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Club Universitario de Deportes and CD Garcilaso each score at least one goal during the game. This market will resolve to "No" if either team fails to score (i.e., if one or both teams finish with zero goals). If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on liga1.pe. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Indicators

Adj IY 69667%
CRI 1
RV 703%
VR 0.21
IAR 0.8/h
Overround 1.9%
▶ Full indicator table (6)
IndicatorValue
Adj IY69667%
CRI1
RV703%
VR0.21
IAR0.8/h
Overround1.9%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
4¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 12:16:33 PM
Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 12:08:24 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0xc59292337c6c29c3f9d17fd47d169ca80c69ccf4286377b1408838987a3abd36 yes 100

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