CPI core year-over-year in Sep 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that CPI core year-over-year in Sep 2026?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Kalshi, closing October 14, 2026. This market is pricing an extremely unlikely outcome—a core CPI reading of exactly 2.5% in September 2026—at just 9 cents, implying only a 9% probability despite the absurdly high 2,067% implied yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
This market is pricing an extremely unlikely outcome—a core CPI reading of exactly 2.5% in September 2026—at just 9 cents, implying only a 9% probability despite the absurdly high 2,067% implied yield on the Yes side. The near-zero liquidity ($2 open interest, $0 volume in 24 hours) and wide 9-cent spread suggest this is a ghost market with minimal real conviction, making the yield figure largely meaningless given the illiquidity and cliff risk score of 10. With 179 days to expiration, the market has time to develop, but the specificity of hitting exactly 2.5%—rather than a range—makes this a binary bet on an improbable pinpoint outcome that rational traders would likely avoid.
Resolution rules
If the CPI core year-over-year is exactly 2.5% in Sep 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXECONSTATCORECPIYOY-26SEP-T2.5 yes 100