CPI core year-over-year in Aug 2026
Leader sits at 30% across 19 bound outcomes, runner-up at 12%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Exactly 2.8%
Outcomes
19
winner-take-all
Runner-up
12¢
Exactly 3.1%
Spread
18pp
contested
24h volume
$38
thin orderbook
Closes
Sep 11, 2026
77 days
Venue
Kalshi
19 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
CPI core year-over-year
CPI core year-over-year in Jun 2026?: Exactly 2.8%
KXECONSTATCORECPIYOY-26JUN-T2.8
CPI core year-over-year in Jun 2026?: Exactly 2.7%
KXECONSTATCORECPIYOY-26JUN-T2.7
CPI core year-over-year in Jul 2026?: Exactly 2.6%
KXECONSTATCORECPIYOY-26JUL-T2.6
CPI core year-over-year in Jul 2026?: Exactly 2.5%
KXECONSTATCORECPIYOY-26JUL-T2.5
CPI core year-over-year in Jul 2026?: Exactly 2.4%
KXECONSTATCORECPIYOY-26JUL-T2.4
CPI core year-over-year in Jul 2026?: Exactly 2.3%
KXECONSTATCORECPIYOY-26JUL-T2.3
CPI core year-over-year in Aug 2026?: Exactly 3.7%
KXECONSTATCORECPIYOY-26AUG-T3.7
CPI core year-over-year in Aug 2026?: Exactly 3.6%
KXECONSTATCORECPIYOY-26AUG-T3.6
CPI core year-over-year in Aug 2026?: Exactly 3.5%
KXECONSTATCORECPIYOY-26AUG-T3.5
CPI core year-over-year in Aug 2026?: Exactly 3.4%
KXECONSTATCORECPIYOY-26AUG-T3.4
CPI core year-over-year in Aug 2026?: Exactly 3.3%
KXECONSTATCORECPIYOY-26AUG-T3.3
CPI core year-over-year in Aug 2026?: Exactly 3.2%
KXECONSTATCORECPIYOY-26AUG-T3.2
CPI core year-over-year in Aug 2026?: Exactly 3.1%
KXECONSTATCORECPIYOY-26AUG-T3.1
CPI core year-over-year in Aug 2026?: Exactly 3.0%
KXECONSTATCORECPIYOY-26AUG-T3.0
CPI core year-over-year in Aug 2026?: Exactly 2.7%
KXECONSTATCORECPIYOY-26AUG-T2.7
CPI core year-over-year in Aug 2026?: Exactly 2.6%
KXECONSTATCORECPIYOY-26AUG-T2.6
CPI core year-over-year in Aug 2026?: Exactly 2.4%
KXECONSTATCORECPIYOY-26AUG-T2.4
CPI core year-over-year in Aug 2026?: Exactly 2.3%
KXECONSTATCORECPIYOY-26AUG-T2.3
CPI core year-over-year in Aug 2026?: Exactly 2.2%
KXECONSTATCORECPIYOY-26AUG-T2.2
Analysis
This 8% probability indicates traders assess a low likelihood that core CPI year-over-year inflation will be exactly at a specific target level in August 2026. The recent data points show core inflation readings around 2.2-2.8%, suggesting the market expects continued moderation or stability in core price pressures. Key factors influencing this assessment include the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, wage growth trends, and supply-chain conditions. The August 2026 CPI release, scheduled for early September 2026, will definitively resolve this contract. Until then, traders are weighing the path of inflation over the coming months against the specific price target embedded in this contract. The low probability reflects either market consensus around a different inflation outcome, or uncertainty about which exact level core CPI will reach.
- ›Core inflation readings in April and June 2026 ranged 2.2-2.8%, establishing the recent trend traders are extrapolating forward
- ›The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and forward guidance between now and August will influence whether inflation accelerates, stabilizes, or declines further
- ›Wage growth data and labor market conditions directly impact service-sector inflation, a major component of core CPI
- ›Supply-chain disruptions or commodity price movements could shift inflation expectations before the August data release
- ›The specific price target of this contract may not align with market consensus on the most likely outcome, explaining the low 8% probability
What moved the line
- Jun 23Exactly 2.8%↑4pp26→30¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in economy
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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