CPI core year-over-year in Aug 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

This represents a 47% probability that core CPI year-over-year inflation will be exactly 2.8% in August 2026. The market is pricing meaningful uncertainty around whether inflation settles at this specific level versus slightly higher (2.9%) or lower (2.7%) readings. The probability reflects mixed signals about disinflation trends: while some contracts suggest inflation moderating below 2.8%, others price in stickiness above it. The August CPI report, scheduled for early September 2026, will definitively resolve this outcome. Until then, incoming economic data on services inflation, wage pressures, and Fed policy signals will influence whether traders shift conviction toward the 2.8% outcome or toward adjacent price levels. The current 47% leader suggests meaningful probability mass distributed across the 2.7%-3.0% range rather than consensus convergence.

• ›The leading 2.8% contract at 51¢ implies meaningful uncertainty, with 49¢ of probability mass distributed across alternative outcomes including 2.9% (26¢) and 2.7% (19¢)
• ›Core PCE and core CPI trends from June and July 2026 will establish the baseline trajectory; any deceleration or re-acceleration in services inflation would shift odds between the 2.7%, 2.8%, and 2.9% outcomes
• ›Federal Reserve monetary policy communications and labor market data between now and early September will influence expectations for disinflation persistence versus stalling momentum
• ›The actual August 2026 CPI release in early September 2026 is the single event that will resolve this contract to either 100¢ (if outcome matches) or 0¢
• ›Trading volume concentration ($383 24h on the 2.8% outcome vs. lower volumes on alternatives) suggests retail participation may not yet be fully pricing equilibrium across all price bins

What moved the line

• Aug 14Exactly 2.4%↑4pp25→29¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 17Exactly 2.4%↓3pp29→26¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 17Exactly 2.5%↓3pp11→8¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds